Germanium Market Weekly Report (Final Week of Dec 2025 – First Week of Jan 2026)

I. Core Data Summary

Item	Current Status	Trend & Analysis
Market Price	Germanium ingot prices remain elevated.	Domestic spot prices have climbed steadily from ~8,900 RMB/kg in early 2024 to ~18,850 RMB/kg (data as of Nov 2024). Recent policy adjustments may ease near-term supply tightness expectations.
Policy Development	Export controls to the U.S. suspended.	China’s Ministry of Commerce announced a suspension of export control measures on germanium and related items, effective until Nov 27, 2026. This aims to ease trade relations and stabilize the global supply chain.
Supply-Demand Dynamics	Tight balance with structural shortage risks.	Long-term, germanium is a by-product metal with ~210 tonnes annual output, constrained by primary metal (e.g., zinc) production, resulting in low supply elasticity. Demand from satellite internet, fiber optics, etc., is growing rapidly.
Market Sentiment	Shifting from supply concerns to cautious optimism.	The suspension of export controls has, in the short term, weakened speculative market expectations of extreme tightness. Downstream industries have gained confidence in securing supplies of this critical raw material.
Industry Focus	Supply chain extension & value addition.	Leading companies are expanding from primary products into higher-value downstream segments (“materials – components – solutions”), such as developing infrared thermal imaging systems.

II. In-Depth Market Analysis

1. Key Event: Export Policy Reshapes Market Expectations
The most significant market driver this week was China’s suspension of export controls on gallium and germanium-related items. This move, following nearly a year of implementation since late 2024, is a clear signal of easing Sino-U.S. trade relations concerning critical minerals.

• Short-term Price Impact: The announcement shifted market expectations. The speculative premium built on previous supply uncertainty faces downward pressure. With global downstream users regaining stable supply expectations from China (the world’s largest producer), the immediate momentum for rapid price increases has weakened. Prices may enter a phase of high-level consolidation.
• Long-term Industry Impact: This provides a crucial window of supply chain security for global downstream sectors like semiconductors, fiber-optic communications, and infrared optics. However, it does not alter the long-term strategic push by nations to diversify critical mineral supply chains. Analysts note this policy adjustment resembles a “breather” in the ongoing process of establishing a new equilibrium in global critical mineral trade.

2. Demand Side: Growth in Emerging Sectors Provides Long-Term Momentum
Germanium demand growth is underpinned by solid structural fundamentals, primarily driven by:

• Satellite Internet & Aerospace: The peak period for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) communication satellite constellation deployment is fueling surging demand for high-efficiency, radiation-resistant germanium-based Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) solar cells – one of the most significant new demand engines.
• Fiber-Optic Communications: As a dopant for fiber-optic cores, germanium is a foundational material for 5G and future communication networks, with demand growing in tandem with global data traffic.
• Infrared Optics: Germanium crystals remain the core lens material for military and high-end civilian thermal imagers, with deepening applications in security, autonomous driving, and industrial inspection.
  CITIC Securities previously forecasted a global germanium demand CAGR of 16.4% for 2023-2026.

3. Supply Side: Long-Term Structural Constraints Persist
Policy easing cannot fundamentally resolve germanium’s inherent supply bottlenecks:

• Scarcity & By-Product Dependency: Global proven germanium reserves are limited, and it is rarely found in independent deposits. Over 90% is recovered as a by-product of zinc smelting or from germanium-bearing lignite. Its output is heavily dependent on the capacity and production decisions for primary metals (zinc, lead), resulting in significant supply rigidity.
• China-Dominated Supply: China is the world’s largest producer and exporter, accounting for ~68% of global supply. While exports have resumed, this high concentration remains a potential risk point for the global supply chain.
• Underdeveloped Recycling: Current global germanium recycling rates are extremely low, far from an effective circular economy model. Improving recovery rates from germanium-bearing scrap (e.g., fiber-optic waste, end-of-life IR components) is key to enhancing future supply sustainability.

III. Industry Developments & Corporate News

1. Industry Upgrade Accelerates: Leading domestic institutions like CHALCO Research Institute are vigorously promoting the extension of the rare and dispersed metals industry chain into high-end segments. Examples include the successful development of cutting-edge products like ultra-large diameter infrared germanium monocrystals and efforts to establish green, full-lifecycle models from resource extraction to recycling.
2. Strong Corporate Earnings: The 2024 price surge is clearly reflected in relevant companies’ financials. For instance, Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd. reported a staggering 1,620.16% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders, driven by higher sales volumes and prices for its main products.
3. Active Supply Chain Moves: Companies are active in securing resources and expanding market presence.
   • Upstream Integration: Sinomine Resource Group’s acquisition of a Namibian smelter is estimated to secure over 746 tonnes of germanium metal resources.
   • Downstream Integration: Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium consolidated subsidiaries to strengthen its semiconductor materials business. Midstream companies like Guagnzhi Technology are extending into downstream sectors through acquisitions.

IV. Market Outlook

Dimension	Short-Term Outlook (Next 1-3 Months)	Medium-to-Long-Term Outlook (2026 & Beyond)
Price Trend	High volatility with potential for correction. Restored export expectations will calm market sentiment, but prices are unlikely to fall sharply due to cost and rigid demand support.	Strong performance with a rising price floor. Demand growth is highly certain, driven by irreversible trends like green energy transition (space-based solar), AI, and communication infrastructure. Slow supply growth may widen the supply-demand gap, supporting long-term price increases.
Supply Risk	Visible risk reduced. Supply chain disruption risk is temporarily mitigated with the reopening of Chinese export channels.	Structural risk persists. Geopolitics, resource nationalism, and volatility in primary metal markets will keep germanium supply in a fragile balance.
Investment & Industry Focus	Market attention shifts from “policy speculation” back to “fundamental delivery,” such as corporate quarterly results and downstream order books.	Technological breakthroughs and circular economy become key. Competitiveness will be determined by the ability to improve by-product metal recovery rates, develop efficient recycling technologies, and extend the value chain into high-value-added downstream products.

Conclusion:

This week, the germanium market reached a significant inflection point following the adjustment of key export policies. In the short term, expectations of severe supply tightness have eased, market sentiment is rationalizing, and the phase of one-sided rapid price appreciation may conclude. However, this policy shift does not alter the fundamental long-term logic of a tight supply-demand balance. Driven by robust demand from strategic emerging industries like satellite internet and AI infrastructure, germanium’s prospects as an irreplaceable critical functional material remain bright. Market participants are advised to utilize this window of stable supply to strengthen supply chain collaborations and focus on long-term strategies for technological upgrading and resource circularity.